Alliance Perspectives

January 06, 2026

Case categories include: CEO Survey   

Introduction

The Business Barometer was created to provide a real-time pulse from business leaders who are at the helm of businesses in every industry and market sector around the world as they navigate increasing complexity across the global economy. At a time of acute economic and geopolitical volatility, executive decision-making cannot rely on lagging indicators.

Read the full Q4 2025 Business Barometer report here 
(demographics and anonymous, direct quotes from leaders that capture the current mindset)

Summary

This Q4 2025 Business Barometer includes responses from 266 business leaders across every major industry sector who are largely based in the U.S. but also includes leaders in 16 countries.

4Q Insights

• The fourth quarter closed a year marked by rapid policy shifts and global trade restructuring that constrained long-term planning but did not trigger major economic crises. As a result, CEO confidence increased by year-end, with leaders reporting greater comfort operating within an emerging “new normal” despite continued headwinds. Sentiment shifted from disruption earlier in 2025 to a more forward-looking posture in December.
• The most significant finding entering 2026 is the acceleration of AI from experimentation to execution. Four years after the launch of ChatGPT, CEOs increasingly view AI as critical to long-term success and are taking concrete actions to embed it into their organizations -- prioritizing speed, adaptability, and competitive advantage over waiting for greater certainty.

Economic Forces Shaping Strategic Advantage

• Q4 data shows that macroeconomic conditions are not affecting all companies equally. Large public companies report greater exposure to tariffs, inflation, and currency volatility, while PE-backed firms feel the greatest pressure from regulatory requirements. At the same time, declining interest rates and a more favorable M&A environment are creating selective tailwinds, particularly for PE-backed organizations.
• By contrast, VC-backed companies appear structurally advantaged in the current environment. Leaders in these firms report relatively favorable labor market conditions, less sensitivity to consumer spending trends, and the strongest optimism around technology and AI-driven disruption. Together, these dynamics highlight a growing divergence in how different ownership models experience, and respond to, today’s economic forces.

The Big Story in 2026 is AI

As organizations head into 2026, AI has moved from experimentation to execution. After more than a year of testing and learning, 82% of CEOs report embedding AI across multiple functions or treating it as a central strategic capability.

Why It Matters

These longitudinal trends are not intended to forecast, but to reveal the real-world pressures shaping executive decisions today. We hope the Business Barometer continues to serve as a trusted signal for leaders navigating uncertainty and complexity. We’d love to hear your feedback - and to include your perspective in future surveys. To contribute to the next edition or share your ideas, contact us at info@allianceofceos.com. Be sure to also join the broader dialogue by following the Alliance’s LinkedIn page.

Participating Organizations & Members

This Q4 2025 Business Barometer includes insights from the members of the following leadership organizations: Alliance of Chief Executives, Athena Alliance, BenchBoard CEO-CFO Coaching (Jim Cook), Board Harbor Foundation, CEO Roundtable (Boston), CEO Roundtable (Minneapolis), Directors Academy, The Circle by Founders Circle Capital, Global Data Innovation, The Institute for Entrepreneurship (Atlanta), LXCouncil, Operators Guild, SplitX and The Virginia Council of CEOs.